ECONOMY

[tom jeffers]

I originally posted this in another thread but i feel it was buried and i truly believe in what I say here. I do not believe this is an idle threat but a real concern. I do care for those of you that are involved on this forum, you are my extended family. Remember I am a CPA and NASD broker and financial advisor so this is my expertise. friends of the forum:if you or your loved ones have your pensions or investments in the stock market, i implore you to get it out now!the stock market never goes straight up or down. it goes in a series of waves. if you study the elliot wave theory, he has identified every major movement or cycle in the market as 5 waves. the first wave goes in the direction of the market, the 2nd wave retraces back a percentage of the 1st wave. the 3rd leg is the longest and strongest of all the legs and continues the direction much farther than the first leg. the 4th leg is a partial retracement back from the 3rd leg and the 5th wave finishes the movement to it's ultimate destination then that cycle ends. a new cycle could begin up or down from there.all elliot wave followers recognize wave 1 down started in october 2007 and finished in mar 2009. according to the percent of decrease they estimated that the leg 2 retracement would be somewhere between 9500 and 10000 in the dow. it appears that last week the dow met those rquirements and the next supercycle leg 3 will continue in the bear run. rob prechter wrote several years ago that in a bear supercycle (like we are now) when you get to the end of the leg 2 retracement, you will hear the economists claim the bear market is over that happy days are here and it tends to draw out the suckers to put their money back in the market.....sound familiar?then leg 3 starts. remember nothing is straight up or down so there will be positve days too but the general direction is much farther than the bottom of leg 1. some are predicting the dow to go to 4800, 3400, or lower. do not forget that there will be a partial retracement but we will head even lower. this all coincides with the time frame we are in. september 30 is the end of our fiscal year in the us and we will find out where we are fiscally sometime between oct 7 to oct 25. look for a big plunge then. call me a pessimist but hard times they are a coming.for those of you who are history buffs, the crash of 1929 was not the low in the market in fact the market recovered nearly to the level it was prior to the big decline which occurred between 1931 to 1933.namaste'

[dankbaar]

Interesting Tom, What do you think the oneday decline will be in percentage, when Armageddon comes? What will be the trigger for the shock?Or do you think it will be a slow decline, going down a few percent every day. Wim

[tom jeffers]

It was no accident that you saw a big decline last Oct 7-10. The government fiscal year ends September 30 and it takes a few days/weeks for the "actual" financial reality of the US to get out. I look for see saws to occur until around Oct 7-25 and somewhere in that time period a big leg down will occur.

[ChristophMessner]

Thanks for the tip, Tom! It's time to buy silver, put options, a piece of land, food reserves, survival kits, ... and exciting books about JFK and the new ecological post-politics-age after the world centralization era.

[dankbaar]

Not silver of gold. But raw materials. (metals, agriculture, oil, etc) Tickercode RJI and/or RJA. Wim

[ThomZajac]

Thanks. Tom. Thanks, Wim.Below 5,000, you think?What do you think about investing in foreign currencies? I realize things are more or less tied together, but might there be a currency or two that will do very well compared to the dollar? (The New Zealand dollar?)Thanks-Thom

[tom jeffers]

it is hard to say because the us and world economy are so entangled. buy staples, seeds, consummable items like toilet paper cigarette lighters, candles and if you really think things are going south stock up on cigarettes to use as barter.namaste'

[ThomZajac]

Yow!

[dankbaar]

I hear a lot of doom scenarios lately, and they might well be right. But thusfar the market is rising against the wall of worry. Anyway, I believe raw materials (oil, agriculture food sources like grain, corn, coffee, metals, like copper, zinc,) are a good investment (better than gold or silver) whether the market will keep rising or crash. Do you know why I believe that, Tom?Wim

[Pennyworth]

tom jeffers wrote:it is hard to say because the us and world economy are so entangled. buy staples, seeds, consummable items like toilet paper cigarette lighters, candles and if you really think things are going south stock up on cigarettes to use as barter.namaste'tobacco lol Tom. I'm trying to stop smoking but my nerves have gotten the better of me (its the postings here that are causing it).The mormons stock up on I believe a 3 year supply of food and items .